Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Why Google Chrome Market Share won't go up too high

This is a follow up to our previous post from yesterday when Google Chrome launched. You've probably heard what the analysts have said, but I will say what I think is going to happen here. I'm sure you all know how slow Internet Explorer is compared to other browsers, and yet it still holds the dominant market share position. In the day that Google Chrome released, it has already gained 1% market share. But it probably isn't going to go up much higher than that and there are many reasons for that. I highly doubt it will ever overtake Internet Explorer, unless google starts making Operating systems as well...

Let's take a look at the three main groups of browser users.
1)Ordinary people who are too lazy to get a new browser. After all, it's just browsing, what do you need in a browser?

2)People who are volatile in terms of browser usage, the people that actually care about which browsers are better, and have the time to change.

3)Developers. Generally, developers would want to know exactly what each browser can see, and their compliance with their websites. Obviously, they would want to try out the browsers for themselves, and maybe do some testing here and there.


Out of those 3, which do you think is the biggest group? If you guessed 1, you are right. In fact, 1 is about 3 times larger than the rest combined. This is illustrated by the fact that there are 3/4 of people using the internet that uses (possibly) the slowest and most inefficient browser out there. If they're sticking to Internet Explorer like this, it's probably because it is preinstalled for them, and they don't want to bother doing anything. This category is unlikely to change because of this.

The second category may change to google Chrome, however, Google chrome is severly lacking in addons and cuztomizations or features that all the other competing browsers have. I think most people will just stay with what they have, unless chrome gets a significant update and gets a lot more features in the full release.

This last category is the smallest of the 3, and developers WILL have to try the google chrome. However, for the same reason as the one above, they will probably just be trying it out, and then going back to using their old browser.

Really, IF google chrome does gain significant market share, the biggest loser will be Firefox. Although it is unlikely that they will gain significant market share. Why would firefox be the biggest loser? Because Firefox users use Firefox for it's capabilities and customizations, unlike the IE users, who use it because they don't care about their browser. Don't expect Chrome to suddnely surge up in market share, because it's not going to happen. Of course, just like the IE8 Beta, Chrome is also still in beta, as such, more components may be added, which will have an impact on their success.

There will be updates as soon as they happen.
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4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your right...if anything... it is a replacement for FireFox more so than IE. I work in IT for a Fortune 500 company and all images are Windows defaults (meaning IE) [with of course business apps]... so even if an employee uses FireFox at home...they are still using IE at work! =)

Bill said...

Many times, there's no choice in the matter whether you're at school or work, because most people don't have administrator rights to use a different browser. A few days after the start of school, IE's market share went up, illustrating the effects of students not having a choice in which browser they use.

Anonymous said...

I do not think it is much of a choice factor, as it is the fact that business and school related online apps are more widely written to handle IE,(although your right about admin rights...however rights are there for a reason also) and FireFox, Opera, Chrome, etc would not display or work correctly. Of course you will randomly have a company wanting to "stand-out" making it harder for business/school flow. For the entertainment world...Firefox it up or whatever you choose.. but in the business world..there needs to be a foundation or standard for everything to mesh easier. (But of course not always perfectly.)Awesome page and great points!

Bill said...

Thank you. You're quite right about the standards, and that is also something Microsoft has the ability to change because of their market dominance. With Firefox and other browsers, they won't know the true standards until a new IE comes out, like when IE 7 tried to change all the standards (which might have been a bit on the anti-competition side). What I find most interesting, is that with the new IE8 Beta, even Microsoft's own web pages don't show up properly.
Since google released a statement saying that success with chrome could also be defined as making IE8 better than it is now, Chrome will be able to meet its purpose.